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    The Unpredictable Race in Scotland

    By: Ben Mixon

    With just over a week until voting day, countries around the world are on their toes in anticipation of the Scottish referendum. Scotland has been on the fence about claiming independence from Great Britain for some time now, but recent polls reveal the waiting may very likely come to an end on September 18th.

    Polls have been asking the very question that voters will answer on voting day: “Should Scotland be an independent country?” A poll conducted by YouGov for the Sunday Times gave “no” a 22 point lead over “yes”. This was on August 7th.

    Twenty days later, soon after the second debate on the issue in parliament, the newest figures from Survation had the gap down to six points, with “no” still in the lead.

    One thing we can be sure of, however, is that “yes” has the momentum going into the vote.

    In additional data gathered in the YouGov poll, 42% (down from 49% in June) of Scots believe an independent economy would suffer, while 40% (up from 27%) believe the economy would benefit.

    Most essential to the outcome of the referendum, is undoubtedly voter participation. An unprecedented 84% of the population has confirmed they will vote in the latest TNS survey.

    A notable statistic being that “yes” leads across all age groups, with the exception of ages 60 and above.

    Aside from the close numbers, projecting the outcome of the vote is an arduous task while factoring in elements of the population that have not voted in the past. In any case, the race for independence in Scotland is hopelessly unpredictable thus far.


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